May 2008: Prices going up

Much is said about inflation and some of us may have realized this in cases whereby certain products have risen sharply.But to put into perspective we here at the Priceisright.Cambodia have used the latest price data to present the following overview:

	Lucky's	Thai Huot
Nov '07-May '08	17,4%	9,3%
on annual basis	34,6%	18,6%
no. of products	21	15
Dec '07-May '08	14,0%	7,6%
on annual basis	33,3%	18,1%
no. of products	53	37
Feb-May '08	8,3%	5,7%
on annual basis	30,4%	21,2%
no.of products	61	45

With two of Phnom Penh's most popular supermarkets as reference, it's easy to see that inflation is high. Between November 2007 and May 2008 prices rose by 17,4 % at Lucky's while Thai Huot registered just under half that figure, 9,3%. Doubling these figures gives an annual estimate. An estimate, because we do not contend that the numbers we came up with are the exact numbers; they provide an indication. This is specially apparent in the overview November-May: not many products are included, thus December-May is a more accurate estimate. Still these figures are near those of November-May.

When these numbers are recalculated to an annual number, it's surprisingly to see, Lucky's numbers dropping (from 34,6% to 30,4%, on an annual basis), while those of Thai Huot are going up (from 18,6% to 21,2%). Though still considerable difference between the two.

Not to be deduced from this table are the numbers over the April-May period for Lucky, which add up to more than 50% (53,3%, based on 48 products) on an annual basis, so the price rises slowing is most probably a temporary thing.

The reality? Orchid butter has gone from $1,35 to $3,10, Sunflower oil from $1,90 to $3,20 between November and May @ Lucky's, President Camembert from $3,20 to $4,75 and Cadbury's chocolate from $3,40 to $3,90 between December and May 2008. At Thai Huot Schweppes Bitter Lemon has gone from $0,55 to $0,75, Arla Mozarella from $2,90 to $3,50 between November and December, Soybean oil from $1,40 to $1,90 and Sunsilk shampoo from $3,20 to $3,55 between December and May 2008.

More recent increases have been Feta cheese (Lemnos from $5,10 to $6,60), toilet paper (Cellox, from $0,90 to $1,10) and teabags (Lipton, from $3,95 to $4,30) at Lucky's during the past month. Over at Thai Huot more recent rises over the February-May time frame have been Nescafe (from $3,50 to $4,10) and rice (New Rain from $1,20 to $1,40).

May '08: the results

It's just over 3 months since the last Phnom Penh supermarket comparison. In the meantime there's much been said on inflation. So much so, that we warrant this a separate entry, later this week. Let's just concentrate what's available today.
In this comparison four supermarkets were compared, Lucky's being the market leader in size and Thai Huot the cheapest supermarket. Additionally brought into the comparison were survey newcomers Sydney, which claims to have the largest selection and BS supermarket, situated in it's own department store.

Table 1:Price level in comparison with minimum price

	May '08	Ranking
Lucky's	109,6%	4
Sydney	107,6%	3
BS	103,7%	1
Thai Huot	104,5%	2

When comparing to the minimum available price in the 4 supermarkets, it's clear that both the BS supermarket and Thai Huot are much cheaper than their larger competitors. This is also obvious when prices are compared to the average price, where the findings are roughly the same.

Table 2.: Price level in comparison to average price

	May '08	Ranking
Lucky's	102,5%	4
Sydney	100,8%	3
BS	96,7%	1
Thai Huot	97,9%	2

Strange these findings, especially considering that Lucky's is the market leader and on basis of it's turnover, it should be able to charge the cheapest prices; at least not being the most expensive. BS supermarket though is the smallest and should have the more expensive prices.
A possible explanation is that BS management fails to conclude that their market is achieving near to none turn over and that many of the prices are in fact out of date prices: these products have been waiting too long for customers and are costing the company in capital costs. Solution: just wait until these products are so cheap that they'll sell themselves? In the meantime go to BS for cheap Coca Cola, cooking oil, sweeteners and rice. Co-incidentally or not, all products which have been raised considerably during the past months.

Table 3.: Percentage of products with lowest price

	May '08	Ranking
Lucky's	38,5%	3
Sydney	33,3%	4
BS	59,4%	2
Thai Huot	69,4%	1

Finally, a word of caution as always. The survey is not an absolute overview, it does however show trends. Lucky's is more expensive than the Thai Huot market. At the same time Lucky's also has much more choice. See table four for instance. Lucky's comparison is based on 65 products double that of BS.

Table 4.: Number of products on which the results are based

	May '08
Lucky's	65
Sydney	57
BS	32
Thai Huot	49

Inflationary pressures @ Lucky's? The results

The previous post gives an overview of prices @ Luckys as of today, 12 April, 2008. The list follows as much as possible the list as published on 7 February 2008 containing prices recorded in the period February 1-5, 2008. The exceptions are few and are from my own maintained list which was not fully published as some products had little value in the overall comparison. The Lucky prices were those that were recorded on February 5, 2008.

In this overview there are 66 products which are compared. The cost of these products on the 5 February was 132,95 $US. Today's prices are exactly 4 $ US more expensive or 3,01%. On the basis that between then and now are 66 days, then this corresponds to 16,6 % increase on an annual basis.

More expensive were the aforementioned Orchid butter (+72%) and Wall's vanilla ice cream / Mama's noodles hot cup (both +25%). Others were peanut butter, rice, chocolate products, dairy products, soybean oil and sugar. Two products became cheaper, salsa sauce and margarine.

However, quite noticeable were that cheaper products / smaller helpings increased in price. If the price for each product on February 5 2008 is considered to be 1, then the increase corresponds to 5,3% or on an annual basis 29,4 %!

Back in February I commented on how the price rise on annual basis at Lucky's was higher than 25%; it was actually 27,01%. So since then inflation has continued to stay high and become even higher.

Compared to the start of price observation prices on a limited number of products at Lucky's (17), prices have increased by 17%, which is huge on annual basis. So don't postpone your new year shopping!

Khmer New Year

It's Khmer New Year time of the year. Supermarkets are packed, staff are pissed off (at least at Lucky's) and there are spectacular prices to be had.

For instance butter, last week a packet of 227 gr was $1,90, yesterday an astonishing $3,10! Orchid (the packer in Thailand) used to be one of cheapest brands and is now by far the most expensive, at least $0,50 more expensive than other brands, even though there packets are slightly heavier.

How come? Who's profiting from this? And why doesn't the supermarket clearly indicate the change in price?

Who care's anyway?