May 2008: Prices going up

Much is said about inflation and some of us may have realized this in cases whereby certain products have risen sharply.But to put into perspective we here at the Priceisright.Cambodia have used the latest price data to present the following overview:

	Lucky's	Thai Huot
Nov '07-May '08	17,4%	9,3%
on annual basis	34,6%	18,6%
no. of products	21	15
Dec '07-May '08	14,0%	7,6%
on annual basis	33,3%	18,1%
no. of products	53	37
Feb-May '08	8,3%	5,7%
on annual basis	30,4%	21,2%
no.of products	61	45

With two of Phnom Penh's most popular supermarkets as reference, it's easy to see that inflation is high. Between November 2007 and May 2008 prices rose by 17,4 % at Lucky's while Thai Huot registered just under half that figure, 9,3%. Doubling these figures gives an annual estimate. An estimate, because we do not contend that the numbers we came up with are the exact numbers; they provide an indication. This is specially apparent in the overview November-May: not many products are included, thus December-May is a more accurate estimate. Still these figures are near those of November-May.

When these numbers are recalculated to an annual number, it's surprisingly to see, Lucky's numbers dropping (from 34,6% to 30,4%, on an annual basis), while those of Thai Huot are going up (from 18,6% to 21,2%). Though still considerable difference between the two.

Not to be deduced from this table are the numbers over the April-May period for Lucky, which add up to more than 50% (53,3%, based on 48 products) on an annual basis, so the price rises slowing is most probably a temporary thing.

The reality? Orchid butter has gone from $1,35 to $3,10, Sunflower oil from $1,90 to $3,20 between November and May @ Lucky's, President Camembert from $3,20 to $4,75 and Cadbury's chocolate from $3,40 to $3,90 between December and May 2008. At Thai Huot Schweppes Bitter Lemon has gone from $0,55 to $0,75, Arla Mozarella from $2,90 to $3,50 between November and December, Soybean oil from $1,40 to $1,90 and Sunsilk shampoo from $3,20 to $3,55 between December and May 2008.

More recent increases have been Feta cheese (Lemnos from $5,10 to $6,60), toilet paper (Cellox, from $0,90 to $1,10) and teabags (Lipton, from $3,95 to $4,30) at Lucky's during the past month. Over at Thai Huot more recent rises over the February-May time frame have been Nescafe (from $3,50 to $4,10) and rice (New Rain from $1,20 to $1,40).

Inflationary pressures @ Lucky's? The results

The previous post gives an overview of prices @ Luckys as of today, 12 April, 2008. The list follows as much as possible the list as published on 7 February 2008 containing prices recorded in the period February 1-5, 2008. The exceptions are few and are from my own maintained list which was not fully published as some products had little value in the overall comparison. The Lucky prices were those that were recorded on February 5, 2008.

In this overview there are 66 products which are compared. The cost of these products on the 5 February was 132,95 $US. Today's prices are exactly 4 $ US more expensive or 3,01%. On the basis that between then and now are 66 days, then this corresponds to 16,6 % increase on an annual basis.

More expensive were the aforementioned Orchid butter (+72%) and Wall's vanilla ice cream / Mama's noodles hot cup (both +25%). Others were peanut butter, rice, chocolate products, dairy products, soybean oil and sugar. Two products became cheaper, salsa sauce and margarine.

However, quite noticeable were that cheaper products / smaller helpings increased in price. If the price for each product on February 5 2008 is considered to be 1, then the increase corresponds to 5,3% or on an annual basis 29,4 %!

Back in February I commented on how the price rise on annual basis at Lucky's was higher than 25%; it was actually 27,01%. So since then inflation has continued to stay high and become even higher.

Compared to the start of price observation prices on a limited number of products at Lucky's (17), prices have increased by 17%, which is huge on annual basis. So don't postpone your new year shopping!